Featured 02. November 2020 in



Who do you expect will be sworn in as US president on Jan 20, 2021: Donald Trump or Joe Biden? Why?

Maren Schweizer
Schweizer World Pte Ltd

I think the President will lose. Here is how I could be wrong.

Markets are warming up to a Biden presidency and Democrat-control of the Senate and House.

Forecasts accordingly give Mr Biden a comfortable 92 per cent chance of victory. In the 8 per cent chance where the president wins the electoral college, Donald Trump’s route to success is similar to the game plan he took in 2016. The factor that caused forecasts to collapse in the last election were voters, who broke late for Donald Trump. Will that happen once more? It could.

Nevertheless, this year, there appear to be far fewer undecided voters, and time has been slipping away. The polls remain close for the Senate race though.